Revisiting # 2 Georgetown vs. # 15 Fla Gulf

We’re now down to the Sweet 16 — but people are still buzzing about one of the biggest upsets of the NCAA Tournament: # 2 Georgetown’s loss at the hands of # 15 Florida Gulf Coast.  Historically, #15 seeds have beaten #2 seeds about 5% of the time.  Some analysts had Georgetown pegged as a national title contender, but G-town fell to the fired-up Florida Gulf Coast team, 78-68.

Georgetown, with one of the nation’s best defenses, had averaged yielding about 55 points per game.  However, they gave up 54 points in the second half against Florida Gulf Coast!  Below, we take a look at several key stats for future reference.

  *** Team ***    PF – PA + SOS

Georgetown     65 – 56 + 7.5   =  16.5  (13-2 in last 15 games before Fla Gulf Coast)

Fla Gulf Coast  73.5 – 67 – 3    =   3.5   (12-2 in last 14 games before playing Georgetown).

This is just one data point — and we know that statistics can’t tell the whole story all of the time, but we wanted to do a quick analysis to potentially find food for thought for our systems and overall betting strategy.   Some thoughts:

  • Is SOS (strength of schedule) overrated?
  • Randomness always comes into play; was this just one of those games? Or could this have been predicted?
  • Both teams were very hot coming into the game.


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Posted in Analysis, College Basketball, March Madness